Alright, I have some time. In the big picture, I'm seeing that the other elements of Mark 13 seem applicable to the Fourth Philosophy and the situation in Judea pre-70 CE, so I'm having trouble accepting that the element of brother betraying brother to death, etc. would apply to a post-70 CE situation. Let's take these other elements one by one.
Mk. 13:1-2:
As Jesus was leaving the temple, one of his disciples said to him, “Look, Teacher! What massive stones! What magnificent buildings!”
“Do you see all these great buildings?” replied Jesus. “Not one stone here will be left on another; every one will be thrown down.”
So the context from the get go is that the Temple is standing and that it will be destroyed, and that seems most applicable to a pre-70 CE situation to me. That would be my first choice, anyway.
Mk. 13:5-6:
Jesus said to them: “Watch out that no one deceives you. Many will come in my name, claiming, ‘I am he,’ and will deceive many.
This too seems most applicable to me to the pre-70 CE situation, given what Josephus says about the Fourth Philosophic Messiah-types in War 2.13.4, for example (and bearing in mind that the context of Mk. 13 is that the Temple is still standing):
These were such men as deceived and deluded the people under pretense of divine inspiration, but were for procuring innovations and changes of the government; and these prevailed with the multitude to act like madmen, and went before them into the wilderness, as pretending that God would there show them the signals of liberty.
Even if this could be applicable to post-70 CE Messiah-types, the pre-70 CE context of Mark 13 makes me vote for these pre-70 CE Messiah-types.
Mk. 13:7-8:
When you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
I take "the end" to be the End Time (when the Son of Man comes and judges people, etc.), and Jesus says, again in a pre-70 CE context, that these are some of the signs of it
before it gets here (i.e, when it is "still to come"), and these signs too, while perhaps applicable to a post-70 CE situation, are at least
also, and in my view
most applicable to the pre-70 CE context of Mk. 13. As Josephus describes the pre-70 CE situation in Ant. 18.1.1, the Fourth Philosophers:
... exhorted the nation to assert their liberty ... so men received what they said with pleasure, and this bold attempt proceeded to a great height. All sorts of misfortunes also sprang from these men, and the nation was infected with this doctrine to an incredible degree; one violent war came upon us after another ...
Mk. 13:8:
There will be earthquakes in various places, and famines. These are the beginning of birth pains.
Ant. 18.1.1:
... a famine also coming upon us, reduced us to the last degree of despair.
War 4.4.5:
... for there broke out a prodigious storm in the night, with the utmost violence, and very strong winds, with the largest showers of rain, with continued lightnings, terrible thunderings, and amazing concussions and bellowings of the earth, that was in an earthquake. These things were a manifest indication that some destruction was coming upon men, when the system of the world was put into this disorder; and any one would guess that these wonders foreshowed some grand calamities that were coming.
Earthquakes "in various places" and famines pre-70 CE are also recorded by pagan writers, such as Tacitus.
And again, in a pre-70 CE context, Jesus emphasizes that these signs are
the beginning of the birth pains of the End Time.
Mk. 13:9-11:
You must be on your guard. You will be handed over to the local councils and flogged in the synagogues. On account of me you will stand before governors and kings as witnesses to them. And the gospel must first be preached to all nations. Whenever you are arrested and brought to trial, do not worry beforehand about what to say. Just say whatever is given you at the time, for it is not you speaking, but the Holy Spirit.
I've already given examples above of pre-70 CE Christians being "handed over to the local councils and flogged in the synagogues," such as 2 Cor. 11:22-25:
Are they Hebrews? So am I. Are they Israelites? So am I. Are they Abraham’s descendants? So am I. Are they servants of Christ? (I am out of my mind to talk like this.) I am more. I have worked much harder, been in prison more frequently, been flogged more severely, and been exposed to death again and again. Five times I received from the Jews the forty lashes minus one. Three times I was beaten with rods, once I was pelted with stones ...
So even though there may
also be post-70 CE examples of this, given the pre-70 CE context of Mark 13, I vote for the pre-70 CE examples.
Mk. 13:14:
When you see ‘the abomination that causes desolation’ standing where it does not belong—let the reader understand—then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains.
Again, I vote for an example that fits the pre-70 CE situation (and fits the context of Daniel it is based on, i.e., the Temple), either the Romans setting up their standards on the Temple Mount that Josephus describes in War 6.6.1 and/or the Roman siege of Jerusalem, during which Titus allowed people to flee, such as to Masada (the latter of which I've discussed upthread).
And now the Romans, upon the flight of the seditious into the city, and upon the burning of the holy house itself, and of all the buildings round about it, brought their ensigns to the temple and set them over against its eastern gate; and there did they offer sacrifices to them, and there did they make Titus imperator with the greatest acclamations of joy.
Mk. 13:26-27:
At that time people will see the Son of Man coming in clouds with great power and glory. And he will send his angels and gather his elect from the four winds, from the ends of the earth to the ends of the heavens.
War 6.5.3:
... a certain prodigious and incredible phenomenon appeared: I suppose the account of it would seem to be a fable, were it not related by those that saw it, and were not the events that followed it of so considerable a nature as to deserve such signals; for, before sun-setting, chariots and troops of soldiers in their armor were seen running about among the clouds, and surrounding of cities.
So for me it's just a matter of interpreting Mk. 13:12 in this same light, and the rampant "murders of men" that Josephus mentions in Ant. 18.1.1 works for me.